The Impact of Shocks from the Emergence of Innovative Activities in the Banking Sector and Credit Risk on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy, with Emphasis on the Information and Communication Technology Index

Abstract

The present study aims to examine the impact of shocks arising from the emergence of innovative activities in the banking sector and credit risk on the effectiveness of monetary policy, with an emphasis on the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) index. The study period is quarterly and spans from 2009 to 2023. In this research, a composite index of the emergence of innovative activities was first constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based on four variables: the ratio of the number of bank accounts to population, the ratio of the number of automated teller machines (ATMs) to population, the ratio of the value of internet banking transactions, and the ratio of the value of mobile banking transactions. The results of the analysis indicated that the first principal component explains the largest share of data variance, and that internet banking has the highest weight in the composite index. Subsequently, to ensure the stationarity of the variables, the Phillips–Perron unit root test was applied, and the results showed that all variables are stationary at the first difference. Given the cointegration among the variables, the Johansen cointegration test was conducted, revealing the existence of at least one cointegrating vector among the model variables; therefore, long-run relationships among them can be examined. The optimal lag length of the model was determined using various criteria, and ultimately, based on the Schwarz–Bayesian criterion, which is more appropriate for a limited sample size, one lag was selected. The Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model was explicitly estimated by imposing theoretical restrictions to assess the effects of monetary policy shocks on economic variables, including the ratio of outstanding loans to deposits, credit risk, inflation rate, interest rate, and the ICT index. The findings indicate that the emergence of innovative activities—particularly through the development of internet banking—exhibits the greatest sensitivity to monetary policy, and that the structural relationships between monetary shocks and innovation indicators play a crucial role in analyzing policy effectiveness. Finally, the proposed model is confirmed to be stable and stationary, showing that the effects of shocks on variables dissipate over time, and it can be used as a reliable tool for analyzing monetary policy and innovation in the Iranian economy.