Design of an Integrated Simulation Model and Managerial Scenario Analysis for Enhancing Productivity in Mining and Mineral Industries Organizations Using a System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

The present study aimed to design an integrated simulation model and managerial scenario analysis framework to enhance productivity in mining and mineral industries organizations using a system dynamics approach. In terms of purpose, the study was applied, and in terms of implementation, it was descriptive. In the quantitative phase based on structural equation modeling, the statistical population comprised experts and practitioners in the mining and mineral industries sector at the Iran Mineral Processing Research Center and its parent organization, the Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO). The sample size was estimated at 174 participants. For model simulation purposes, a 10-year time horizon was considered, as this horizon adequately captures a reliable historical trend and aligns with the strategic planning horizon of the National Iranian Copper Industries Company, which was selected as the spatial domain of the model. Moreover, changes in investment and technology in the mining industry typically manifest their impacts over periods of 5 to 10 years. To collect the required data at this stage, the necessary information was extracted from the official CODAL disclosure system and analyzed using Vensim PLE software. To identify and analyze effective strategies for achieving a desirable state, eight policy scenarios were defined, including the development of technological infrastructure, modernization of physical equipment, improvement of organizational structures, intelligent energy management systems, research and development activities, technical skills of the workforce, mine safety management programs, and support for the local community. The simulation results indicated that single-dimensional scenarios generate only limited improvements, such that the second to fifth scenarios achieved only a 3% to 7% improvement in utilization rates and profitability growth. In contrast, more comprehensive scenarios—particularly the sixth to eighth scenarios—yielded more meaningful outcomes, with the sixth scenario leading to a 17.7% increase in utilization rates and profitability growth. The sixth scenario also demonstrated the best performance in improving and accelerating labor productivity, and when combined with the seventh and eighth scenarios, it produced the maximum possible impact on total productivity. Overall, the findings indicate that productivity enhancement requires a comprehensive and systemic perspective. In other words, focusing solely on a single dimension is insufficient, and sustainable results can only be achieved when managerial actions are implemented coherently across multiple levels within the framework of an integrated macro-level policy. In general, the results suggest that integrated and multidimensional approaches are more effective than single-dimensional policies in improving productivity and performance in the mining and mineral industries sector. These scenarios also resulted in a 3% to 5% improvement in total productivity.