Providing Strategies to Improve Investments of Iran’s Social Security Organization with a Focus on the Role of Technology

Abstract

This study aims to conduct a foresight analysis of the investments of Iran’s Social Security Organization with an emphasis on the role of technology. The research is applied in purpose, qualitative in nature, and adopts a descriptive–prescriptive approach. The study population consisted of experts in the fields of foresight, investment, and emerging technologies. Using a judgmental sampling method, ten interviews were conducted in two sessions over the course of one month in 2025. The research process followed a three-stage model including the identification of driving forces, layered causal analysis, and scenario development. Initially, 29 driving forces were identified, of which 28 were finalized using a binomial test. Subsequently, the indicators were analyzed across four layers, and the TOPSIS method revealed that the “extent of use of data-driven technologies” and the “managerial decision-making style” were the most influential driving forces. Based on these two factors, four scenarios were developed: the “Transformation Pioneer” scenario, in which the synergy of risk-taking and data orientation leads to a shift toward knowledge-based investments; the “Modern Bureaucrat” scenario, in which technology is used merely as a monitoring tool and investment is limited to preserving asset value; the “Intuitive Surge” scenario, where risk-taking without data results in fragmented decisions; and the “Isolated Conservative” scenario, which represents the worst case, where the absence of both factors leads to capital erosion. The findings emphasize the importance of linking leadership culture with analytical capabilities to achieve the desirable “Transformation Pioneer” scenario. This study can serve as a reference document, facilitating future research and enhancing the resilience of the Social Security Organization in the face of technological transformations.