Identification of Import Tariff Factors Affecting the Gross Domestic Product Index Using Factor Analysis

Abstract

This study was conducted with the aim of identifying the factors influencing the structure of import tariffs and their impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) index. The research method was quantitative and based on exploratory factor analysis. The statistical population included economic actors, producers, traders, and experts related to the field of foreign trade, and sampling was carried out using a stratified random method. Considering the requirements of factor analysis and the need for at least 5 to 15 observations per variable, the sample size was determined to be approximately 150 individuals. The validity of the questionnaire was evaluated using expert opinions, face validity, and content validity, as well as the Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Content Validity Index (CVI). The reliability of the instrument was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha, with a value above 0.8 indicating the reliability of the measurement instrument. Quantitative data analysis was conducted using SPSS software, and the results identified a set of key factors constituting import tariff barriers, which were subsequently used in further models to examine their effects on GDP. Based on the exploratory factor analysis, six main factors were extracted, each encompassing a set of variables related to import processes. These factors include: senior management and import regulations, financial management and exchange rate policies, digital payment services and e-commerce, marketing and macroeconomic activities, technology and innovation, and economic and social infrastructure. The findings indicate that import tariffs have a multidimensional nature and influence import patterns and ultimately GDP through institutional, monetary, digital, economic, and infrastructural channels. It can be concluded that the structure of import tariffs is influenced by six institutional, financial, digital, economic, technological, and infrastructural factors, which simultaneously affect import patterns and ultimately GDP.