Scenario Planning for Employment Development Strategies in the Agricultural Sector
Keywords:
Scenario planning, strategy, employment development, agricultureAbstract
The purpose of the present study was to conduct scenario planning for employment development strategies in the agricultural sector. The required data were collected through a Delphi questionnaire and extracted from the viewpoints of experts and specialists, leading to the identification of key drivers influencing employment-development strategies in agriculture. Considering these elements and integrating them into agricultural development strategies using a futures-studies approach can create an enabling environment for sustainable job creation and higher productivity in this sector. For this purpose, the cross-impact analysis matrix method was employed. Among the significant drivers, 22 were identified as the most important: market and product prices; infrastructure and technology; training and consulting; cooperation development; risk management and market monitoring; facilities and services; technological innovations; online platforms; advanced technologies; intelligent systems; product quality management; environmental research; development of information systems; climate change and its impacts; sustainable resource use; awareness-raising and education; natural resource management; pollution reduction and quality preservation; training and awareness; promotion of agricultural culture and identity; cultural activities and festivals; economic and livelihood development; and cultural development and promotion. Using the identified drivers, the scenario space was developed, and five scenarios with the highest likelihood of occurrence were identified and formulated. Among them, the first scenario, with a 66% probability, was selected as the most plausible scenario. Ultimately, it can be concluded that the first scenario—centered on infrastructure development, market stability, and human-resource training—represents the most desirable pathway and is capable of influencing more than 60% of sustainable employment development in this sector. Therefore, achieving this preferred vision requires national commitment and the formulation of integrated strategies focused on strengthening these key drivers simultaneously.
Downloads
References
1. World B. World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work: World Bank Publications; 2019.
2. Folke C. Resilience The Palgrave Handbook of Critical Physical Geography: Springer, Cham; 2022. 1-15 p.
3. Asaleye AJ, Inegbedion H, Lawal AI, Adeleke OK, Osakede UA, Ogunwole EB. Revamping agricultural sector and its implications on output and employment generation: Evidence from Nigeria. Open Agriculture. 2023;8(1):20220140. doi: 10.1515/opag-2022-0140.
4. Etuk EA, Ayuk JO. Agricultural commercialisation, poverty reduction and pro-poor growth: evidence from commercial agricultural development project in Nigeria. Heliyon. 2021;7(5). doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06818.
5. Feng Z, Robinson GM, Tan Y. Rural Revitalization in China: Reversing Rural Decline and Eliminating Poverty. Geography Compass. 2025;19(7). doi: 10.1111/gec3.70039.
6. Velasco-Muñoz JF, Mendoza JMF, Aznar-Sánchez JA, Gallego-Schmid A. Circular economy implementation in the agricultural sector: Definition, strategies and indicators. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021;170:105618. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105618.
7. Zghara I. Legal Ensuring the Sustainable Development of the Agricultural Sector of Ukraine Under the Conditions of European Integration. Public Administration and Regional Development. 2024;25:798-816. doi: 10.34132/pard2024.25.04.
8. Spaniol MJ, Rowland NJ. The scenario planning paradox. Futures & Foresight Science. 2023;5(1):e134. doi: 10.1002/ffo2.148.
9. Holland JH. Signals and boundaries: Building blocks for complex adaptive systems: MIT Press; 2019.
10. Nikolić T, Pjanović B, Vračarević B. Rural Planning in the Context of the Green Agenda: European Principles and Good Practice Examples. 2024:391-8. doi: 10.5937/pnzpzs25391n.
11. Tomashuk I. Rural Entrepreneurship as a Tool for Employment and Improving the Quality of Life of the Population. State and Regions Series Economics and Business. 2025(2(136)). doi: 10.32782/1814-1161/2025-2-7.
12. Smagulova Z, Aitakhanov Y, Nurzhanova G. Agricultural Policy: Key Tasks for the Development of Labor Potential in Rural Areas. Problems of Agrimarket. 2025(2):185-95. doi: 10.46666/2025-2.2708-9991.16.
13. Sitsofe P, Gibson R. Workforce Development in Rural Ontario: An Examination of Experiences and Strategies. Rural Review Ontario Rural Planning Development and Policy. 2025;9(1). doi: 10.21083/ruralreview.v9i1.8282.
14. Nguyen TT. Vocational Training Experience in Asociation With Solving Employment Challenges for Rural Workers in Various Countries and Some Recommendations for Vietnam. Jof&ar. 2025:123-9. doi: 10.71374/jfar.v25.i1.24.
15. Shlyakov V. The Role of European Union's Agricultural Policy Inthe Development of Rural Areas in Bulgaria. Int J Digit Res. 2025;1(3):53-71. doi: 10.63711/ijdr.net20250306.
16. Klerkx L. A review of social science on digital agriculture, smart farming, and agriculture 4.0: New contributions and a future research agenda. NJAS: Impact in Agricultural and Life Sciences. 2022;94(1):1-15. doi: 10.1016/j.njas.2019.100315.
17. Teece DJ. A capability theory of the firm: An economics and (strategic) management perspective. New Zealand Economic Papers. 2018;52(1):1-43. doi: 10.1080/00779954.2017.1371208.
18. Mathinya VN, Franke AC, Ven GWJvd, Giller KE, Andersson J. Are Aspirations of Rural Households Aligned With National Rural Development Policies? Understanding Aspirations of Small-Scale Farming Households in the Former Homelands of South Africa. European Journal of Development Research. 2025;37(5):885-908. doi: 10.1057/s41287-025-00709-5.
19. Jameh Saz O, Sobhani SMJ, Mokhber Dezfoli A, Haji Mirrahimi SD. Analysis of Business Development Strategies in the Agricultural Sector (A Case Study of Karaj County). Entrepreneurship Strategies in Agriculture. 2023;10(1):93-106. doi: 10.61186/jea.10.19.93.
20. Salari Pour AA, Amjadiyan AM. Exploring Development Strategies for Supporting Agricultural Service Cities (Case Study: Sanqur City). Geography and Planning. 2023;27(85):109-22.
21. Jashari S, Esfandiari M. Formulating Macro Strategies for the Export Development of Agricultural Products with a Foresight Approach. Strategic Studies of Public Policy. 2022;12(42):100-16.
22. Sharma S. An Overview of Rural Non-Farm Sector: A Review. Interantional Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management. 2025;09(02):1-9. doi: 10.55041/ijsrem41924.
Downloads
Published
Submitted
Revised
Accepted
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Sirus Safarnia (Author); Seyed Hamed Hashemi; Bahman Kargar Shahamat (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
