Dynamic Modeling and Sensitivity Assessment of Contractual Strategies in the Development of Independent Gas Fields
Keywords:
Feedstock–Capital Swap, Independent Gas Fields, System Dynamics, Sensitivity Assessment, Contractual Risk ManagementAbstract
The development of independent gas fields in Iran faces multiple structural challenges, including energy imbalance, financial resource constraints, and contractual complexities. The “feedstock–capital swap” mechanism has emerged as an innovative solution for integrating the upstream and downstream value chains; however, selecting an appropriate contractual framework requires precise analysis of the nonlinear dynamics governing the system. The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model based on system dynamics for assessing the sensitivity of contractual strategies in the development of independent gas fields. The research methodology included a systematic review of the literature, identification of 14 key economic, technical, and legal variables, and the design of a simulation model using the Vensim software. In this framework, six variables were selected as final key performance indicators (KPIs) for the comparative evaluation of four contractual models, including Buyback, IPC, EPD+F, and PPP, while the remaining variables were incorporated into the feedback structure of the model as intermediary parameters. The findings indicate that traditional static contractual models experience value erosion and increased project failure risk in the long term. In contrast, the proposed model, based on an intelligent and dynamic swap mechanism, created structural flexibility and increased the sustainable benefits of stakeholders by up to 400%, while reducing the probability of project failure to below 10%. The results confirm that transitioning from fixed contracts to dynamic price-adjustment mechanisms is essential for ensuring reservoir-friendly production and economic sustainability under market uncertainty. This decision-making framework enables policymakers to reduce conflicts of interest, improve financial transparency, accelerate field development, and facilitate the completion of downstream industrial capacities.
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