Identifying and Prioritizing the Factors Affecting Longevity Swaps from a Risk Perspective in the Insurance Industry
Keywords:
qualitative phase, Delphi method, longevity swap, risk, expert consensus, policymakingAbstract
The issuance of insurance-linked securities associated with longevity risk is one of the most efficient methods for financing and risk hedging in financial institutions. However, identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting the application of innovative instruments such as the “longevity swap” from a risk-management perspective, particularly under changing economic conditions, remains a serious challenge. The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying, validating, and ranking the key factors affecting the application and development of longevity swaps from the perspective of risk management in the Iranian insurance industry. This research was carried out within a qualitative framework using the grounded theory research method. In the qualitative phase, an initial set of factors was first extracted through a review of the specialized literature and interviews with 10 individuals selected through purposive sampling. This stage contributed to clarifying the conceptual dimensions and determining the initial research framework. Then, in the quantitative phase, a Delphi questionnaire was designed and validated in several rounds based on expert opinions. In the second stage, experts were selected based on criteria such as specialization, experience, academic position, and relevant professional background. In the third stage, the Delphi process was implemented in two rounds to collect expert opinions and achieve consensus. In the fourth stage, using the defuzzification method, fuzzy numbers were converted into crisp values, and the final ranking of the factors was conducted. The results showed that factors such as insurance laws and regulations, capital risk management, political and economic stability, and information transparency had the greatest weight and influence in the longevity swap process. This finding indicates that the institutional and regulatory environment plays a vital role in controlling and managing the risks associated with longevity swaps, and without appropriate legal and supervisory infrastructures, the sustainable development of this financial instrument will be limited.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Bahman Sharifi (Author); Farzaneh Bigzadeh; Nowrouz Nourollahzade, Roya Darabi (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
